lundi, avril 07, 2008

The "white guy" vote

In the spring, a woman's fancy turns to....standing in a muddy Glenmoore park viewing a Little League Game, and wondering whether Barack Obama can really win the Presidency. In other words, will white men vote for him?

Believe me, if you'd been there, hands freezing, your feet soaking wet from having stepped in a deceptive patch of muddy grass, you might be pondering Barack Obama's aspirations, too.

So let's play this one out...Hillary sees the delegate math isn't breaking for her. She looks as the superdelegates, and how they are trending toward Obama. After Pennsylvania and the June 3 primary, she surrenders. We lose our brokered convention-and Democrats are put out of the misery of watching white guys (and some women) defect to John McCain. The party coalesces around Barack Obama.

Or does it? I am not sure that, when it actually comes to pulling that lever or punching that card, or writing that name on the cardboard, that a lot of white men will actually vote for a black man. Some of them would rather choose a 70 year old Senator who favors war until "victory" in Iraq and huge tax breaks for the affluent-in other words they would vote against their own natural interests out of prejudice. I'm guessing there is a fairly big group of people who lie to pollsters on racial matters- we won't find out how large until November.

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