mardi, octobre 07, 2008

Global Fundamentals

This is a very helpful article, because it explains to economic ignoramuses like me what's happening in the global economy. Of course, Pearlstein is writing about what happened yesterday -- who knows what will occur this morning?


With Bubbles Popping Worldwide, No Wonder the Economy's Gone Flat
By Steven PearlsteinTuesday, October 7, 2008;

Up to now, it's been a financial crisis. This is a meltdown -- an uncontrolled and largely uncontrollable financial chain reaction that threatens serious harm to the broader economy.
The immediate problem is that the institutions that have most of the world's free cash -- banks, money-market funds, hedge funds, pension funds and major corporations -- are hoarding it and won't do the normal thing of lending to one another.
One reason is that many have taken on too much debt, lost too much money and are under pressure to use any spare cash to pay down debt and rebuild their reserves.
The other reason is that they feel unsure about what they know about the financial health of other institutions and are afraid that some of them will fail.
So what we've got is a liquidity crisis that is bigger than anyone has ever seen, on top of an insolvency crisis that is bigger than anyone has ever seen. And thanks to the explosion of cross-border trade and investment, the crisis has not only gone global but now threatens to take most of the global economy into recession.
"World on the edge," is how the Economist magazine summed things up on its cover this week. And that is certainly how things felt during yesterday's wild ride on stock and money markets.
What we now have is a set of economic and financial bubbles bursting at roughly the same time.
Here in the United States, the bursting of the residential real estate bubble punctured the first hole in the credit bubble, which in time brought an end to the corporate takeover bubble, the commercial real estate bubble and the commodities bubble. Because of those bubbles, Americans became convinced that they were wealthier than they really were, leading to a consumption binge that created mini-bubbles in autos, vacation travel and retail sales. Now those have burst as well.
The symbiotic twin of the giant consumption bubble in the United States was the giant export bubble in China and the rest of Asia. That export bubble, in turn, created stock market and real estate bubbles all across Asia and fed a global commodities bubble as well. Now that the air is coming out of the export bubble, shares on the Chinese stock market have declined 60 percent, while real estate prices in key Indian cities are in free-fall.
Similarly, you could draw a line of causality from the global commodities bubble to real estate and stock market bubbles in Russia and much of the Middle East. In Russia, stock prices are down nearly 50 percent for the year, including a 20 percent plunge yesterday before trading was halted. Unfortunately, much of that stock was bought by corporate oligarchs and their friends using loans from Russian banks, with the now-depressed stock as the only collateral. Three of the biggest banks have already required a $44 billion cash infusion from the Finance Ministry, and some analysts warn that much more will be required once sky-high real estate prices come crashing down.
Some of the froth from the Wall Street bubble made its way across the Atlantic to Ireland, which became a back-office for the U.S. and British financial service industries, attracting tens of thousands of new workers from all over Europe. Those workers, in turn, helped to create an impressive real estate bubble that has now weakened banks to the point that customers began withdrawing funds and the government had to step in to guarantee all deposits.
Other bubbles were created by complex trading and investment strategies meant to arbitrage large differences in interest rates in different economies. For years, this "carry trade" greatly distorted the value of currencies in places like Iceland, New Zealand and Australia, flooding those economies with more capital than they needed or could productively use. Now those investment bubbles have burst, the trades are being reversed and the currencies and financial systems are under extreme stress.
Because these bubbles are all related to one another, it should be no surprise that they are all popping at once. The timing, however, has created a dangerous dynamic in which selling begets more selling and failures beget more failures. No country, and no industry, can escape the effects of this process. History shows that the only way to break the vicious cycle is for governments to step in with massive amounts of money.
The immediate problem is to relieve the credit crunch by acting as a banker of last resort. Although money-market funds, for example, may be unwilling to lend to banks and other financial institutions, they are still eager to lend to the Treasury by buying its short-term bills and bonds.
So in recent weeks the Treasury and the Federal Reserve have come up with aggressive new schemes for taking large amounts of that borrowed money and lending it out on a short-term basis to banks, other financial institutions and perhaps even to corporations.
But even when the cash crunch has eased, most analysts believe the government will still have to provide the seed money to recapitalize a banking and financial system that is likely to have suffered a trillion dollars or more in credit losses. Congress last week provided the Treasury with the authority to borrow and spend $700 billion to begin that effort, while European governments have been forced to take over some of the biggest banks over there. Whether bigger and more coordinated efforts are needed will be topic A this weekend when central bankers and finance ministers arrive in Washington for the annual meetings of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund.

lundi, octobre 06, 2008

My article from the Washington Post this afternoon

Guest Voices-->Elizabeth
Clergy Leadership on Trial
A church court's determination that Episcopal bishop Charles E. Bennison should be deposed after he was convicted of covering his up brother John's sexual abuse of a minor in the 1970s is another signal that the "gentleman's agreement" that for so long bound the denomination together continues to unravel.
The sentence last week by an ecclesiastical court against the head of the Diocese of Pennsylvania followed a public Philadelphia trial in June. His lawyers have said that Bennison, who was suspended last November from acting as bishop, will appeal. The wrenching testimony of the victim and her family, long in search of justice and a hearing, lent weight to the judges' verdict and sentence. Yet it is hard to avoid the feeling that it was a whole era of clergy leadership, now disappearing, that was on trial.
Rent by lawsuits, political maneuvering by the denomination's conservatives, and defiance by the church's liberal core, the Episcopal Church is currently in turmoil over issues of doctrine and sexuality. But it is also roiled by a phenomenon that has affected other sectors of the American workplace-the passing of a generation of predominantly white, male leaders.
The upper-class and upper-middle class environment that spawned previous generations of Episcopal clergy is perhaps one reason that this branch of the Anglican Communion has, until the past few decades, succeeded in papering over the theological and cultural divisions that have long existed. To their credit many were, and are, men of great moral integrity.
Although most were not physically present, long-retired and dead bishops were invoked by the defense to make the case that various bishops and lay leaders had become aware of John Bennison's misconduct over the course of the last three decades. Because those leaders knew about the misconduct, and did not challenge him personally or bring charges against him, his lawyers argued, that also made Bennison's response to his brother's misconduct appropriate.
Apparently the judges didn't buy that argument-or didn't find that it exonerated Bennison.In fact, it can be argued that culpability extends well beyond Charles Bennison.Even allowing that church leaders didn't have all the details, their inaction was morally problematic. It is also symptomatic of an entrenched church culture that seemed to value discretion and unity above accountability or justice. After all, shockingly, this was the denomination that didn't split over slavery before or during the Civil War.
It is possible that if his own bishop and clergy colleagues had exercised true pastoral care for Charles Bennison, it might have changed the course of his own ministry.But as it was, their silence set the stage for Bennison's election as bishop of Pennsylvania, and the mayhem that has followed. From the beginning, the bishop found himself mired in controversy.
Although they vehemently disagreed with his liberal churchmanship, conservative clergy, in an extraordinary show of political chutzpah, helped to elect him. The bargain they thought they struck with him would have allowed them to stay in the diocese (and maintain control of their property), while having a pastoral relationship with a bishop more sympathetic to their cause. But that apparent "gentleman's agreement" quickly fell apart.
It wasn't long before cries of betrayal morphed into open acts of defiance. Many liberal clergy have also become embittered. At first they embraced the affable Bennison as a champion of a progressive theological agenda, someone who would advance the goals they held dear. But as the diocese became mired in disputes between the bishop and other diocesan leaders, many of his supporters became disillusioned. Neither side found in him the leader they sought. Nor, perhaps inevitably, did they find a way to maintain fellowship in the midst of great doctrinal and social divisions.
While the picture in other Episcopal dioceses may not be quite as turbulent, many are in the grip of internal strife. Katherine Jefferts Schori, the Episcopal Church's first female Presiding Bishop, has taken a hard line with the traditionalists that does not auger well for future tranquility here. The fractiousness in the American church is mirrored internationally, where African and Asian conservative bishops have pitted themselves against the leadership of the Archbishop of Canterbury in a power struggle for the heart and soul of the Anglican Communion.
Here or abroad, it is hard to lament the passing of the vaunted Anglican 'via media.'Sadly, the historic badge of Anglicanism became another term for the overtly genteel, avoidant leadership that ignored problems in its own backyard. It was heartening to see the denomination's current diversity echoed in the five-women, four-man panel currently deliberating Bennison's sentence. But whether the more democratic, litigious, and diverse generation of church leaders that has replaced those who came before them can produce a healthier, more vibrant, or even a truly viable denomination remains to be seen.

dimanche, octobre 05, 2008

Why not the guys?

Read this relatively short piece by Lisa Belkin (linked above) and think about what you would do if your spouse was offered a wonderful job in another state or country...or if you were offered one yourself.

She's got one amazing husband, was my first reaction.

I think she's right --- this chatter about what industry calls the "work-life balance" is a conversation mostly among women. It could have been one that I had with my friends.

Even though there is a lot more liberty to be a man and own up to ambivalence than there was 60 years ago, I'm guessing most guys don't open up with their buddies over a Guinness on a Friday or in the corner office at lunch.

I wish they did. I wish women didn't have to, or want to, turn themselves into emotional wrecks trying to make the perfect choice -- when there are only more or less good decisions. A relationship is so much stronger if both partners make the difficult calls together.

samedi, octobre 04, 2008

Monday morning Jesus

This has been quite a weekend for the Episcopal Church in Pennsylvania.

On Friday, an ecclesiastical court ruled that Bishop Charles Bennison, convicted of covering up the sexual abuse of his brother, would be deposed. Today the Diocese of Pittsburgh voted, 240-102, to leave the Episcopal church and join the Diocese of the Southern Cone. Just a week or two ago, the House of Bishops had voted to depose Pittsburgh Bishop Robert Duncan for "abandoning the communion of the church." Two Pennsylvania bishops deposed in less than a month-must be a record.

It would have been nice if the only event was the long-planned workshops and service of repentance at St. Thomas Philadephia for the church's participation in the transatlantic slave trade. But such was not to be.

I was covering the service for a national news agency, so I went down to West Philadelphia this morning.

The Presiding Bishop, Katherine Jefferts Schori, was the preacher. I found the litany touching. The sermon, on the other hand, was just strange: it was more an anthropology and sociology lesson than a theological approach to slavery and penance. In addition, there was some resentment that the event wasn't held at in D.C. at the National Cathedral.

As one retired bishop said to me, "we Episcopalians are never happy about anything!"

Nonetheless, no one seemed too upset about the sermon-and I didn't overhear much talk about the missing bishop.

A friend said that it was a good thing that the deposition happened a month before our diocesan convention, so that people would have time to deal with the reality.

Was anything solved? Don't think so. Charles Bennison will appeal. The Presiding Bishop will probably try to establish a new diocese in Pittsburgh. And an apology is not reconciliation.

But, as someone reminded me, the Church goes on. Sometimes its wrong, as it was on slavery for three centuries. Sometimes its late, as when it waits 30 years after abuse to convict a clergyman. And sometimes it is torn by scandal, a poor witness to Christ.


There's a great quote from the AP story about the Pittsburgh split.

“I cannot in good conscience vote for realignment,” the Rev. Kris Opat, a conservative who is curate of St. Paul’s Episcopal Church in Mount Lebanon, Pa., told the audience before the vote. “I believe it is the Lord, and not us, in control of this church. And I refuse to believe it is the Lord who is behind this fracture.”



Yet there are times when we do rise to the call to be disciples. As my friend said to me, it's not what happens on Sunday in that hour or two that matters. It's what we do on Monday- and all the days after.






jeudi, octobre 02, 2008

No decency

What's that quote from...oh gosh, I'm so bad at this.

Who was the man who challenged Senator Joe McCarthy? Have you no decency sir, at long last? he said...well, you get the idea.

His query could be applied to our elected representatives this week. Is there no occasion too sober for self-interest?

I was so disgusted that the Congress added earmarks to the bailout bill that I wanted to link you to a video of a cat flushing a toilet, again and again. A friend shared this with me yesterday (not intending political commentary) and it seems all too appropriate. I'll try to link it to my 'blog. If you don't find it, leave me an email address and I can email it to you.

lundi, septembre 29, 2008

Cribbed from the NYT

I may be the only one whose head spins when I try to explain to the kids why we are in such an enormous financial mess. Trying to understand more than the basics leads me through the looking glass into fantasy-which is where apparently many bankers were spending their time and our dollars.

"Credit default swaps (invented in the last decade!) is a term that comes up again and again. I'm sticking it up here for my own good as well as for my reader's education. The banks, and other lenders were insuring each others bad loans.

The cynicism of that is remarkable.


Credit default swaps, which were invented by Wall Street in the late 1990's, are financial instruments that are intended to cover losses to banks and bondholders when a particular bond or security goes into default -- that is, when the stream of revenue behind the loan becomes insufficient to meet the payments that were promised.
In essence, it is a form of insurance. Its purpose is to make it easier for banks to issue complex debt securities by reducing the risk to purchasers, just like the way the insurance a movie producer takes out on a wayward star makes it easier to raise money for the star's next picture.
Here is a more detailed, but still simplified explanation of how they work, given by Michael Lewitt, a Florida money manager, in a New York Times Op-Ed piece on Sept. 16, 2008:
"Credit default swaps are a type of credit insurance contract in which one party pays another party to protect it from the risk of default on a particular debt instrument. If that debt instrument (a bond, a bank loan, a mortgage) defaults, the insurer compensates the insured for his loss.
Read More...
"The insurer (which could be a bank, an investment bank or a hedge fund) is required to post collateral to support its payment obligation, but in the insane credit environment that preceded the credit crisis, this collateral deposit was generally too small.
"As a result, the credit default market is best described as an insurance market where many of the individual trades are undercapitalized."
The market for the credit default swaps has been enormous. Since 2000, it has ballooned from $900 billion to more than $45.5 trillion — roughly twice the size of the entire United States stock market. Also in sharp contrast to traditional insurance, the swaps are totally unregulated.
When the mortgage-backed securities that many swaps were supporting began to lose value in 2007, investors began to fear that the swaps, originally meant as a hedge against risk, could suddenly become huge liabilities.
The swaps' complexity and the lack of information in an unregulated market added to the market's anxiety. Bond insurers like MBNA and Ambac that had written large amounts of the swaps saw their shares plunge in late 2007.
Credit default swaps also played an integral role in the federal government's decision to bail out the American International Group, one of the world's largest insurers, in September 2008. The Federal Reserve concluded that if A.I.G. failed and defaulted on its swaps, throwing the liability for the insured securities onto the swaps' counterparties, the result could be a daisy chain of failures across the international financial system.
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dimanche, septembre 28, 2008

Last night I let the kids stay up late to watch Saturday Night Live. I could barely stay awake, but hey, a promise in the land of parenthood is a promise.

They had a wonderful time. Both their dad and I are NPR junkies, so it's no suprise that the kids are fairly steeped in politics. Although I do recall Mr C complaining that when Ms. DQ is in the car, she gets to listen to rock music. Mr. C, on the other hand, is confined in the rear, where he must listen to talk shows and newscasts.

I didn't realize how much they had picked up until Colin decided to take our videocam and create a commercial.

His friend T grabbed a few of my weights. As he tried manfully to loft them, the voiceover said (I paraphrase) "Weighed down by debt and bad credit? Call *Chuck* America. He can help you."

I have to admit I was impressed. But then I asked my little director how he meant to help those who had fallen into debt. "I'm doing a commercial, mom- I'm not running a business" said Mr. C.

This observation seemed all too true to life. Only the guys doing the commercials did pretend to be running a business.